The invention relates to a risk assessment method for a thermal pipeline system. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, collecting and surveying materials required by pipeline system risk factors; 2, performing macroscopic test and professional inspection on pipelines; 3, performing professional analysis; 4, determining numerical values of the risk factors according to the technical standard, operating parameters and expert assessment; 5, inputting the numerical values of the risk factors to a computer, and performing risk calculation by using a risk assessment model; 6, outputting a risk assessment result, so that a decision maker decides whether to accept according to the risk assessment result; 7, if the risk assessment result cannot be accepted by the decision maker, finding and processing the major factor influencing the value at risk and performing risk calculation again; and 8, if the risk assessment result is accepted by the decision maker, finishing the assessment procedure. According to the risk assessment method, risk assessment is performed by using the risk model, so that a decision-making basis is supplied to the decision-maker, accidents such as breakage, collapsing or burst are reduced or avoided, the service life of the pipelines is prolonged, and human life and property are prevented from being lost.