A method is provided to accurately predict the probability of successfully recovering frames of (coded) information received over a 
wireless link, without having to decode the frame. This method, which consists of three steps, requires only limited information about the received signals and the 
forward error correction code and 
retransmission scheme being used. First, the 
signal to 
noise ratio (SNR) of each of the received signals is measured, where the average SNR is determined for multiple segments that together constitute the frame. Next, an 
algorithm is employed that takes these SNR values as inputs and determines the so-called effective SNR. The 
algorithm translates the measured SNR values using an appropriate convex metric, and subsequently combines the resulting values, thereby factoring in the effects of 
fading, multi-path, and other 
signal degradations. In the third stage, the effective SNR is used to determine the 
frame error rate by using a look-up table of a single reference curve that specifies the 
frame error rate of the actual error control code over an 
additive white Gaussian noise channel. This suffices to accurately predict the performance of a wide range of 
mobile communication channels. This method can be applied to a variety of 
retransmission strategies, including 
hybrid automatic-repeat request (ARQ) and 
incremental redundancy (IR) and combinations of these two strategies.