The invention belongs to the technical field of Baijiu production prediction, and relates to a Baijiu stack
wine production prediction method, a model construction method and a
system. The invention discloses a model construction method for predicting the liquor yield of liquor stacks. The model construction method comprises the following steps: collecting characteristic data of a plurality of stacks and corresponding liquor yields; preprocessing the characteristic data of the stacks of the same production round to form an input matrix X and a
wine yield vector Y; performing coding
processing or continuous characterization
processing on the year and workshop information to which the heap belongs to obtain a characteristic variable capable of representing the
systematic deviation of the year and the workshop relative to the overall
average level, and adding the characteristic variable into the input matrix X; and establishing a regression prediction model from the input matrix X to the
wine yield vector Y based on a partial least square regression model according to the input matrix X and the wine yield vector Y. According to the method, stack-level yield prediction is realized in the earlier stage of stack
fermentation, and a coding variable capable of representing
systematic deviation of the input matrix X relative to the overall
average level is added into the input matrix X to realize early warning and accurate prediction.