The invention discloses a method for assessing collapse probability of a steel structure in a fire. The method includes steps: 1, determining a probability distribution function of random factors; 2, designing a random fire scene; 3, building a steel structure instability probability model; 4, determining steel structure collapse critical temperature; 5, calculating a temperature field of a large-span steel structure component in a natural fire: 501, building a steel structure heat balance equation; 502, calculating net absorption heat of the steel structure; 503, calculating temperature rise of the steel structure; 6, determining failure probability of the steel structure component. The method is simple in step, reasonable in design, convenient to realize, good in using effect and high in universality, can realize assessment on collapse probability of the steel structure in the fire and makes up the defect that influence of fire randomness is not taken into consideration in existing steel structure collapse probability assessment methods.