The invention provides an establishment method for a pipe network leakage prediction model based on EPR evolution polynomial regression, and belongs to the field of an urban water supply network. The method comprises: processing original data of modeling, determining pipe diameters, pipe lengths, and pipe age as influence factors; then respectively modeling five kinds of pipes, grouping each kind of pipes according to pipe diameters, pipe lengths, average weighted pipe age, and leakage frequency per year, establishing a leakage prediction model with pipe diameter, pipe length, and pipe age as independent variables, and leakage frequency per year as a dependent variable, using fitting degree of a CoD determination model; using actual leakage data to verify the leakage prediction model, using predictive ability of a RMSE judging model; finally, summing the leakage frequency per year which is predicted according to the leakage prediction models respectively established for the five kinds of pipes, to obtain final leakage frequency total amount of the pipe network in a region. Through the establishment of the model and determination of the leakage number of the region, the pipes which have leakage risks can be found out as early as possible in daily management, so as to reduce probability of accidents and reduce economical loss.