The invention relates to the technical field of thermal power
generating unit state monitoring and
performance prediction, and discloses a thermal power
generating unit primary
frequency modulation power response
performance prediction method and
system, and the method comprises the steps: monitoring a
unit speed regulation execution mechanism physical position feedback
signal, and calculating the baseline fluctuation characteristics of the
unit speed regulation execution mechanism in a
verification time period; judging whether a preset working condition stability condition is met or not; if yes, a time-varying virtual disturbance
signal is injected into the speed regulation controller, response is monitored, and the current value of the
health indicator is determined based on the corresponding relation between the disturbance
signal and response change; repeating the steps according to a preset time period to obtain
time sequence data of the
health indicator; and adopting a
time sequence prediction model to predict a future value of the
health indicator based on the data so as to generate prediction information of the primary
frequency modulation power response performance of the unit. According to the method, virtual disturbance is actively injected, so that the
physical health indicator which is high in signal-to-
noise ratio and can be used for reliable prediction can be obtained, and the accuracy and reliability of
performance prediction are improved.