The application discloses to belong to the technical field of
water resources management, and particularly relates to a
water resources carrying capacity prediction method based on a
water resources supply and demand prediction model, which comprises the following steps: collecting economic,
water supply and hydro-meteorological data of a research area; constructing an input-output model, combining with
structural decomposition analysis to identify
virtual water core influencing factors; constructing a water resources supply and demand
deep learning prediction model, inputting influencing factor data under different future scenarios, and outputting water resources supply and demand prediction values; using the supply and demand prediction values and future social and economic data to calculate water resources supply and demand indexes and concentrated carrying indexes, and integrating the two indexes into a water resources
carrying capacity index through an
entropy weight method. The application realizes accurate prediction of regional water resources supply and demand and dynamic quantification of water resources
carrying capacity under multiple social economy-climate scenarios, can accurately identify core driving factors of water resources carrying capacity, and provides
technical support for sustainable allocation of water resources in
arid areas and coordinated development of social economy and
ecological environment.