The invention provides an ACAS X anti-collision decision-making method,
system and equipment based on probability prediction, and relates to the technical field of
aviation safety, and the method comprises the steps: when a
local machine detects a target
machine, setting the
relative motion state information of the two machines at an initial moment as an observation value at the initial moment, setting the variance at the initial moment as 0, and setting the variance at the initial moment as 0; constructing a
state vector at an initial moment; establishing a
discrete time system state equation for describing
time evolution of the
state vector; for each action in the candidate action set, on the basis of the
state vector at the initial moment and a
system state equation, online predicting future probability distribution of the state vector after the
local machine executes the current action; based on the future probability distribution of the state vector, calculating the conflict probability of the
local machine and the target
machine in the future after the local
machine executes the current action; and the action with the minimum conflict probability is determined as the optimal anti-collision decision instruction from the candidate action set, so that the problems of poor flexibility, difficulty in updating and insufficient real-time performance of an existing anti-
collision system are solved.