This invention belongs to the field of
satellite orbit prediction technology and provides an
artificial intelligence-based method for predicting the orbital state of low-Earth
orbit satellites. The method includes: dividing the predicted
orbit into
time windows, calculating the composite acceleration for each step, inputting the initial position and velocity with forces to obtain a nominal orbital
state sequence, and constructing an augmented
state vector with aerodynamic composite parameters; inputting the vector into a time-series neural
network model, and updating the augmented state based on the output; obtaining the original standard deviation through mapping using an uncertainty metric, calculating the standardized residual, obtaining the right-hand weighted quantile value according to
normalized time weights, comparing it with a preset threshold, and performing
adaptive bias adjustment; using the acquired data to calculate a risk metric, comparing it with a set threshold and priority rules, automatically performing a judgment action on the risk metric, recording the triggering cause and judgment action, and updating the parameters in the time-series neural
network model.