The invention relates to a wind-farm reliability evaluation method, and particularly to a wind-farm reliability evaluation method of considering wind-
turbine transmission system fatigue. The method solves the problem that risks cannot be accurately evaluated by existing evaluation methods, and includes the steps of: 1, generating a historical fatigue
load time sequence and a fatigue load spectrumof turbines; 2, generating a shafting material performance S-N curve; 3, carrying out fatigue analysis on
turbine shafting; 4, establishing a shafting fatigue
failure rate model; 5, establishing a Markov model of considering the
transmission system fatigue; and 6, using a Monte Carlo method for reliability analysis. The method of the invention has the
advantage that possibility that fatigue damageof traditional
turbine shafting causes a turbines outage and
occurrence probability and caused consequences thereof are considered when it is determined that the turbines are in running or outage status, thus a more accurate turbine
outage probability model according with reality is provided in turbine reliability modeling, then accuracy of wind-
power reliability evaluation is significantly improved, and an analysis result can be indirectly used for guiding of wind-farm overhaul plans and running plans.