This invention discloses a method,
system, equipment, and medium for predicting the annual horizontal load of 10kV medium-
voltage lines, belonging to the field of power
system planning technology. Addressing the problems of existing load
prediction methods neglecting distribution
network topology, load characteristic differences, and the difficulty in effectively utilizing
automation data, this invention proposes a multi-factor adaptive model that integrates topology correction factors, load type benchmark coefficients, and
automation data. First, a capacity-current benchmark coefficient
library for different load types is established through
cluster analysis; second, topology correction factors are calculated based on the number of line segments and tie points; then, basic predictions are performed by combining the annual natural growth rate and the annual horizontal installed capacity; finally, segmented load predictions can be achieved by integrating historical data from automated switches.
Verification using actual data from the Shagang Tangtou area of Foshan shows that the average prediction error of this method is less than 3.5%, reducing it by more than 60% compared to traditional methods, and it can quickly respond to adjustments in planning schemes, significantly improving the scientific nature and efficiency of distribution network planning.