The invention provides a river channel evolution model construction method and device,
electronic equipment and a readable storage medium, and relates to the technical field of intelligent water conservancy. By constructing normal prior distribution of riverbed roughness parameters and combining a customized likelihood function and a
Bayesian inference framework,
accurate estimation of posterior distribution of the parameters is realized, the defects that a traditional method only outputs a single optimal solution, is easy to sink into
local optimum and cannot quantify uncertainty are overcome, and the parameter calibration precision is remarkably improved. A self-adaptive and multi-chain parallel
dynamic simulation algorithm is adopted, parallel sampling is carried out, the step length is dynamically adjusted, and the sampling efficiency and the convergence speed in a complex posterior space are greatly improved. Through deep
coupling of a hydrodynamic error model and a likelihood function, the consistency of the model and an actual hydraulic process is enhanced. Parameter uncertainty is propagated to
simulation results, mean values, variances and confidence intervals of
water level, flow and other prediction results are constructed, and a scientific and reliable
uncertainty quantification basis is provided for flood early warning and scheduling
decision making.