The invention provides an intelligent monitoring and early warning method and
system for real-time ship dragging, and the method comprises the steps: firstly obtaining trajectory data in a normal anchoring state based on a
ship control simulator, extracting a bias width, a to-ground navigational speed and a heading change rate as dragging monitoring indexes, and constructing a standard cloud model of each index through employing a
Gaussian function; inputting the indexes collected in real time into the corresponding cloud model to obtain a membership degree, and calculating a real-time dragging probability in combination with an
entropy weight method; net
resultant force is calculated based on wind, flow and anchor chain parameters, and the
drift velocity vector range after anchor dragging is estimated; aIS data are used for fitting an actual anchor position, a drift end
point set is generated through Monte Carlo
simulation, and four drift danger level intervals of danger, partial danger, partial safety and safety are divided; generating a ship space
density distribution diagram covering the interval in combination with
kernel density estimation; finally, the dragging probability and density information are fused to calculate a comprehensive risk value, acousto-optic grading early warning is triggered according to a preset threshold value, and high-precision and early-warning intelligent prevention and control of the dragging risk are achieved.