The invention relates to the technical field of
fog potential forecasting, and discloses a plain area
fog potential forecasting method based on weather
typing and meteorological element change, which comprises the following steps: constructing a low-
visibility event instance
library, and establishing a high-altitude circulation and ground situation
typing library; and then matching the real-time forecast field with the
typing library to determine a weather background, and extracting meteorological elements such as temperature inversion and quiet wind. The method is characterized in that a movable boundary
conceptual model is integrated, an
air mass boundary is identified by calculating a horizontal
temperature gradient and is quantified into discrete state characteristics representing cold and warm
air mass effects, and finally, a weather background, conventional elements and the discrete state characteristics are jointly input into a
Bayesian probability model, so that the
air mass effect is obtained. And calculating and outputting the
posterior probability of each
fog potential level. According to the method, the key physical process is quantified and then fused into the
statistical model, so that the capturing capability of a specific
fogging mechanism is improved, and the forecasting result has high accuracy, strong
interpretability and refined probability characteristics.