This invention provides a method, apparatus, equipment, and medium for production prediction based on time-varying reservoir parameters. The method includes the following steps: S1, establishing a variable decline exponential production decline model for
tight gas reservoir wells; S2, collecting historical gas production data of
tight gas reservoir wells, and confirming the second undetermined characteristic parameter β and establishing a first
linear model based on
linear fitting of lnq and t / (lnt)β, wherein the slope of the first
linear model is -α and the intercept is lnq. i Value; and S3, confirming the theoretical initial output q based on the first
linear model. i The invention uses a first undetermined characteristic parameter α to predict gas well production using the variable decline exponent production decline model. This invention better reflects the production decline law of
tight gas wells, is simple to operate, and has higher prediction accuracy than traditional decline models with a constant decline exponent. It can be widely used for production decline prediction in tight gas reservoirs.