The application relates to the technical field of
electronic component reliability, and discloses a flat
transformer voltage withstand performance sure reliability modeling and evaluation method, which comprises the following steps: firstly, a constitutive model fusing a physical mechanism is constructed, a time degradation model and a temperature influence model are established based on the geometric size, material properties and
environmental stress of an insulating layer, and a
process capability parameter is introduced to represent manufacturing fluctuation; secondly, a reliability evaluation model is established, a failure threshold and a margin equation are defined, and physical parameters are identified as random variables to quantify uncertainty; then, Monte Carlo
algorithm is used to sample random variables, virtual samples are generated, and
voltage withstand margin is calculated on an evaluation
time sequence; finally, the number of samples meeting a safety criterion is counted, instantaneous reliability is calculated, and a full-life-cycle reliability curve is generated. The application effectively decouples and quantifies the influence of manufacturing processes,
temperature stress and time degradation on
voltage withstand performance, and realizes sure reliability evaluation with high confidence.