29 results about "Runoff coefficient" patented technology

The invention provides a flood prediction method, device and equipment for a mountainous area hydropower station. The method comprises the steps of obtaining meteorological data in a drainage basin where the mountainous area hydropower station is located in real time; the meteorological data comprises rainfall data, flow data and water level data; respectively inputting the meteorological data into a plurality of pre-constructed flood prediction models, and determining a prediction result of each flood prediction model in the current period; wherein the flood prediction model comprises a time sequence model, a hydrological model and an LSTM and runoff coefficient model; determining a prediction error of each flood prediction model according to the prediction result and the water level data in the current period; according to the prediction error, determining a flood prediction model adopted in the next period and a corresponding prediction result; and issuing corresponding flood early warning according to the prediction result of the next period. According to the invention, through a multi-model parallel prediction and dynamic selection mechanism, the adaptation shortages of a single model under a complex water regimen are effectively made up, and the prediction error is further reduced.

This invention relates to the fields of reservoir scheduling, flood control and disaster reduction, and hydrological forecasting, and particularly to a method for calculating reservoir rainfall carrying capacity based on a dynamic runoff coefficient. The method includes the following steps: collecting data including the target reservoir's catchment area, characteristic water level, and water level-capacity relationship curves; establishing a dynamic equation for rainfall-runoff coefficient based on reservoir storage using the initial water level, characteristic water level, and storage capacity relationship curves; collecting and analyzing historical flood data for the target reservoir to generate parameter statistics tables for each flood event; establishing a dynamic equation for rainfall-runoff coefficient based on underlying surface conditions based on the parameter statistics tables for each flood event; and solving the dynamic equations based on reservoir storage and underlying surface conditions simultaneously. This invention relies on real-time water level and real-time rainfall to dynamically calculate reservoir rainfall carrying capacity, thus improving the accuracy of reservoir rainfall carrying capacity calculation.

A rainwater utilization method and system based on a sponge city, a medium and a product, relate to the technical field of sponge cities. The method comprises: obtaining the air conditioning cooling water demand and the low water quality water demand of a current scheduling period of a commercial complex; based on weather data of the current scheduling period, combining the catchment area and the runoff coefficient of the commercial complex, calculating the predicted rainwater inflow; determining the predicted water storage of the current scheduling period; obtaining the water demand and the predicted water storage of the next scheduling period; when it is predicted that the water quantity of the next scheduling period is insufficient, executing a rainwater conservation strategy in the current scheduling period, including calculating the minimum cooling water demand and the minimum irrigation water demand of the greenbelt, prioritizing the predicted water storage to meet the minimum water demand, and storing the remaining water storage to the next scheduling period. The present application solves the problem that the fixed water level grading based static scheduling method cannot cope with the fluctuation of water demand through forward-looking prediction and dynamic conservation strategy, and realizes efficient utilization of rainwater resources.

The application discloses a time-varying runoff coefficient calculation method and system reflecting urbanization underlying surface regulation and storage, and steps are as follows: S1, obtaining rainfall data of a city research area, drawing a column chart and a curve chart of a rainfall process, and extracting high-precision digital surface model data by using high spatial resolution satellite stereo image pair data; S2, performing grid processing on the high-precision digital surface model data, constructing a grid type, and performing land utilization division and extraction analysis; S3, calculating hydrological parameters including a basin water content parameter, vegetation interception, a filling and depression parameter and a infiltration parameter; S4, calculating building roof runoff, effective impervious area, non-effective impervious area, pervious area and water area based on the rainfall process, the land utilization division and the hydrological parameters; and S5, calculating a time-varying runoff coefficient. The application can accurately evaluate the availability of rainfall water resources, provide scientific guidance for urban rainwater collection and utilization, and provide a more reliable basis for urban flood forecasting and drainage system design.

The invention discloses a coupling coordination degree evaluation method and system based on a hydrological environment, drainage and waterlogging prevention facilities and a social system, and belongs to the field of system coupling coordination degree evaluation systems under the background of urban waterlogging. From two analyses, the first criterion layer of the hydrological environment system is rainfall, terrain and water permeability, and the second index layer is annual rainfall, gradient and comprehensive runoff coefficient. The drainage and waterlogging prevention facility system criterion layer is drainage facility and emergency rescue accessibility, the drainage facility index layer is drainage pipe network density, drainage pipe network capacity, pump station capacity and discharge passage density, and the emergency rescue index layer is fire-fighting emergency rescue accessibility. The criterion layer of the social system is economic and safety requirements, the index layer of the economic layer is total citizen production value and house price, and the indexes of the safety requirements are population density, schools and hospitals. And an index weight is calculated by adopting a subjective weight determination method and an objective weighting method, the collaborative development degree of the three systems is quantified, and quantitative evaluation of the coupling coordination degree of the three systems in the region is realized.

The application provides a water environment model coupling data processing method and system, and relates to the technical field of hydrology and water quality monitoring. The method comprises the following steps: determining the downward trend of soil permeability characteristics and estimating the uncertainty range of runoff coefficient; using a regional source-sink pollution model, obtaining source model data according to the uncertainty range of runoff coefficient; using a one-dimensional river network model, obtaining error information and outputting prediction data according to the source model data; and determining the prediction deviation mode by comparing the prediction data and real-time monitoring data and correcting the parameters of all related models in the whole model chain. The method aims to solve the technical problem that the prediction of the river network model deviates from the actual measurement data in a nonlinear manner in a three-model coupling system, which ultimately leads to the inconsistency between the permitted discharge amount set based on the system and the actual water body absorption capacity, and to realize the accurate analysis of the response relationship between the urban pollution load and the water environment quality and the real-time and self-adaptive adjustment of the permitted discharge amount.

The application discloses a rainfall correction runoff simulation method, comprising the following steps: obtaining observed precipitation data, measured runoff data and simulated runoff data generated by a hydrological simulation model of a target basin; constructing a multi-year average runoff coefficient based on the observed precipitation data and the simulated runoff data; using the multi-year average runoff coefficient and the measured runoff data to back-calculate the theoretical precipitation, and comparing and quantifying the total precipitation gap of the basin with the observed precipitation data; constructing a spatial feature weight coupled with the area and elevation of an observation site, distributing the total precipitation gap of the basin to each observation site based on the spatial feature weight to generate a rainfall correction coefficient; correcting the observed precipitation data by using the rainfall correction coefficient, and inputting the hydrological simulation model to output a re-simulated runoff process. The application promotes the distribution of the spatial precipitation gap and improves the runoff simulation precision under the premise of satisfying the hydrological mechanism and water mass conservation.

The application provides a flood calculation method and device for urban areas, and belongs to the technical field of urban drainage and flood control and disaster mitigation. The flood calculation method for urban areas comprises obtaining drainage data and divided grid data of the urban area; determining a corresponding runoff into-pipe peak value of each urban block based on a ground comprehensive runoff coefficient, a design rainstorm intensity and an urban block area of each urban block; determining a corresponding water storage parameter of each drainage subarea; and determining an into-pipe flow of each grid based on the corresponding water storage parameter of each drainage subarea, the corresponding runoff into-pipe peak value of each urban block, a runoff and confluence parameter of each urban block and rainfall data. By combining the discrete two-dimensional grid runoff with the generalized water storage unit of the drainage subarea, a numerical processing flow with physical constraints is constructed, and efficient and objective quantitative evaluation of the flood process of the area lacking data is realized.

The invention discloses a method for determining a design water surface line of a multi-direction and multi-point outflow river channel in a plain river network area, which comprises the following steps of: calculating design rainstorm in different recurrence periods and different durations, and carrying out rain pattern time history distribution to obtain a design rainstorm process; analyzing various underlying surfaces of the target area and determining a runoff coefficient; according to the area ratio of various underlying surfaces, designing a rainstorm process and a runoff coefficient, calculating runoff production and confluence, and obtaining an inflow process along the riverway; establishing a river network mathematical model; a riverway along-way inflow process calculated by flow production and concentration in an upstream area is used as a flow boundary, a coastal tide level process or a designed control water level in a leakage bearing area is used as a water level boundary, a plurality of riverway outlet schemes with different frequencies are prepared by combining riverway water level control conditions, and riverway on-way water levels under different schemes are calculated through a river network mathematical model; the water surface line is designed. According to the invention, the planning design and scheduling management capability and level of the multi-direction and multi-point outflow river channel can be improved.

The invention relates to the technical field of municipal administration, and discloses a rainwater pipe network usage amount calculation method and device, computer equipment and a storage medium, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the regulation and storage information of regulation and storage facilities arranged in each land block in a target region, the actual area corresponding to each underlying surface in the target region, and the historical rainfall information; calculating the equivalent accounting area of each plot according to the regulation and storage information of the regulation and storage facility of each plot in the target area, the historical rainfall information, the rainfall runoff coefficient of each underlying surface and the actual area; and calculating the rainwater pipe network usage amount of each plot according to the proportion of the equivalent accounting area of each plot in the target area. According to the method, the conditions of rainwater infiltration and accommodation of the regulated and stored facilities are fully considered, and the estimated usage amount of the rainwater pipe network on the basis is more suitable for the actual condition.

This invention belongs to the field of data processing technology, specifically relating to a method and system for flash flood disaster early warning based on meteorological and hydrological collaborative analysis. The method includes: acquiring and processing topographic datasets and rainfall data sequences as model inputs for the target early warning area; acquiring multiple topographic geometric parameters for calculating terrain energy; calculating the current terrain energy; accumulating the unit previous impact rainfall, the mean of previous target rainfall across all grid cells, and the standard deviation of previous target rainfall; calculating the current dynamic runoff coefficient; obtaining the current runoff intensity; calculating the current runoff velocity based on the regulatory effect of dynamic hydrological conditions on the static base flow velocity determined solely by topography; and inputting the current runoff velocities of all grid cells within the target early warning area into a distributed hydrological model for early warning. This invention solves the problem that existing distributed hydrological models cannot dynamically reflect differences in runoff generation and runoff changes.

The invention provides an urban inland inundation factor identification method based on a pipe network model and interpretable machine learning. The method comprises the steps of obtaining rainfall data, importing the rainfall data into an MIKEUrbin waterlogging model for simulation, and obtaining node water depth (inspection well water depth), surface runoff, runoff coefficient, water collecting area, pipeline flow velocity, pipeline flow, pipe length, pipe diameter and water collecting area unit area pipeline capacity; node water depth is used as a target variable, and surface runoff, runoff coefficient, catchment area, pipeline flow velocity, pipeline flow, pipe length, pipe diameter and catchment area unit area pipeline capacity are used as explanatory variables of the waterlogging driving factor model. Establishing a deep learning model by adopting an automatic machine learning method; and performing SHAP interpretability analysis on waterlogging factors of each catchment area, and proposing an optimal rainfall flood management scheme for the catchment area.

The invention relates to the technical field of particle swarm optimization, in particular to a dynamic simulation and intelligent optimization method for reservoir rain receiving capacity based on digital twinning, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the drainage speed, soil humidity and soil water seepage capacity value of each position in each reservoir and the rainfall intensity of each reservoir in real time; according to the soil characteristics and rainfall characteristics of each reservoir at each moment, obtaining a rain receiving capability value of each reservoir at each moment; acquiring a priority scheduling factor of each reservoir at each moment according to the drainage speed and the spatial distance of each upstream reservoir of each reservoir and the rain holding capacity values of each reservoir and each downstream reservoir at each moment, and acquiring a fitness function of the reservoir group at each moment in combination with the target function of each reservoir at each moment; and obtaining an optimal drainage gate adjustment method of each reservoir at each moment through a particle swarm algorithm. By dynamically acquiring the runoff coefficient and analyzing the constraint relation between the upstream reservoir and the downstream reservoir, the dynamic simulation and optimization effect of the rain receiving capacity of the reservoir is improved.

The invention discloses a runoff prediction method for dynamically correcting hydrological comparison, which belongs to the technical field of hydrological forecasting and comprises the following steps of: S1, acquiring a plurality of factors and a data set which influence runoff, and preprocessing the factors and the data set; s2, performing factor screening according to the preprocessed data set and a plurality of factors influencing runoff, and determining core elements; s3, based on the core element, calculating the similarity between the candidate power station and the research power station, and determining a reference power station; s4, constructing a multiple linear regression model, solving, and updating a runoff coefficient; and S5, based on the updated runoff coefficient, performing weighted fusion, and calculating the runoff of the target power station. According to the method, dependence on actually measured hydrological data is effectively reduced, and a solution which is wide in applicability, accurate and efficient is provided for runoff prediction of drainage basins without data or with data shortage.

The invention discloses a method for soil preparation and vegetation recovery of a waste slag field in an alpine and arid region. The systematic integration technology can efficiently control water and soil loss, through a three-dimensional protection system formed by the slope ecological bag protection slope, the slag top matts and the gravel belt, erosion gully development can be eliminated, and the runoff coefficient is reduced by 60% or above. The water content of the soil is increased by over 50% through multiple water retention designs such as microtopography water collection, non-woven fabric evaporation inhibition, gravel shading and root water retention, and the water condition of the arid region is fundamentally improved. According to the method, a superior habitat is created for vegetation, the survival preservation rate of trees and shrubs exceeds 85%, and high-coverage coverage is rapidly formed for herbaceous plants. Meanwhile, organic improvement such as sheep plate manure enables soil organic matters to be remarkably increased, and soil fertility is continuously improved. Degradable materials are adopted in the whole process to achieve ecological fusion, waste gravels and livestock excrement are recycled, the cost is reduced by 30% or above, and unification of ecological, economic and social benefits is achieved.

The invention discloses a comprehensive runoff coefficient valuing method of an urban hill. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a topographic map of an urban hill monitoring area and rainfall information and flow information of a monitoring station; preliminarily determining the confluence duration of rainwater flowing from the watershed to the section of the catchment area monitoring station according to the topographic map, and rechecking and determining the confluence duration according to the time difference between the rain peak and the flood peak; according to the rainfall information, the flow information and the catchment area, calculating the rainfall capacity, the water yield and the comprehensive runoff coefficient of the short duration of each rainfall; rainfall capacity of different time periods before a rain peak is obtained according to rainfall information, influences of long-duration rainfall and short-duration rainfall are considered, a relational graph of a short-duration comprehensive runoff coefficient and the long-duration rainfall capacity before the rain peak is drawn, and a working curve of a comprehensive runoff coefficient design value can be obtained; therefore, the calculation precision of the rainwater design flow formula is improved, flood control and drainage safety risks are reduced, and the method can be widely applied to the technical field of urban drainage.

The invention relates to the technical field of data processing, in particular to a sponge park hydrological efficiency dynamic analysis method based on multi-source spatiotemporal data, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a surface runoff coefficient reference value and a soil steady-state infiltration rate reference value of a target sponge park at the current moment; according to the change rate of the soil moisture content of the target sponge park at the current moment, the strength of the hydrological event, the sediment concentration and the operation duration, the soil steady-state infiltration rate reference value is adjusted, and the dynamic infiltration rate is obtained; adjusting the reference value of the surface runoff coefficient according to the initial soil moisture content, the rainfall intensity, the duration time and the maximum confluence length of the target sponge park at the current moment to obtain a dynamic runoff coefficient; and inputting the dynamic infiltration rate and the dynamic runoff coefficient into the distributed hydrological model, and carrying out real-time monitoring and early warning on the hydrological efficiency of the target sponge park according to an output result of the model, so that the accuracy of analyzing the hydrological efficiency of the sponge park is improved.

The invention discloses a method for testing stability and erosion resistance of a green vegetation side slope, belongs to the technical field of road side slope performance testing, and aims to solve the problem that the stability and erosion resistance of the green vegetation side slope cannot be comprehensively reflected by the existing green vegetation side slope performance testing in the prior art. The method comprises the following steps: laying a cultivation matrix in a matrix box body, and planting target vegetation; clear water is injected into the underground water simulation tank; the runoff water collecting tank and the seepage water collecting tank are mounted below the water outlet end of the matrix box body; starting a rainfall simulation unit; respectively calculating a runoff coefficient, a seepage coefficient, a runoff seepage dynamic ratio and / or a sediment loss rate; and / or drawing a relation curve graph of the runoff seepage dynamic ratio and the rainfall duration and a relation curve graph of the sediment loss rate and the rainfall duration. The method can be used for testing the stability and erosion resistance of the green vegetation slope.

The invention discloses an urban rainfall flood system multi-objective optimization method based on grey-green cooperation, and the method comprises the following steps: (1) constructing a rainfall flood model of a research region: constructing the rainfall flood model through employing an SWMM according to the land use type, topographic data, rainwater pipe network data and the like of the research region, and carrying out the calibration and verification of the model; (2) determining parameters of a gray regulation and storage facility and a green LID facility, wherein the parameters comprise the position and the volume range of the gray regulation and storage facility and the type, the layout proportion and the unit price of the green LID facility; (3) establishing a multi-objective optimization model: setting constraint conditions by taking the total cost, runoff coefficient and node total overflow quantity of the grey and green infrastructure as objective functions, taking the waterlogging risk level of the sub catchment area as a penalty function and taking the volume of the grey regulation and storage facility and the area of the green LID facility as decision variables; and (4) multi-objective optimization solution: based on an NSGA-II algorithm, writing an SWMM interface program, and calling the SWMM to carry out rainfall flood model calculation and scheme optimization to obtain an optimal grey green facility scale scheme.

The application relates to the technical field of urban renewal planning, and discloses a method for optimizing the spatial pattern of impervious surfaces by considering unit differences, which comprises the following steps: step one: based on initial CN values, impervious density, slope and rainfall and other data, a runoff coefficient is calculated, and a runoff minimization target is converted into a linear programming problem; step two: according to the interpretation result of the SCS-CN model, a linear programming condition is set; and according to the actual situation, relevant constraint conditions are set; step three: the result is solved. The application considers the differences in drainage capacity among different hydrological units, realizes the spatial balance of surface water retention, and has the advantages that on one hand, the surface runoff in the high water retention area can be reduced, and on the other hand, the drainage capacity of the area with remaining capacity can be fully utilized.

A rainwater pipe network design calculation method based on motion wave simulation belongs to the technical cross field of urban rainwater pipe network and hydraulic model. The method adopts the way of runoff coefficient and phi index method to simulate the surface runoff process, is coupled with the equal flow time line method, and completes the calculation of the inflow process line of the rainwater inlet. Based on the secondary development of SWMM, the motion wave module of SWMM is called to simulate the pipe section confluence process, and the simulation results are read. With the flow process line calculation as the core, from the upstream pipe section, the rainwater inlet inflow process line of the design pipe section and the flow process line of the upstream pipe section connected with the design pipe section are superposed, and the peak value is taken as the design flow of the pipe section. Based on the GDAL development technology, the traditional hydraulic design method is adopted to realize the step-by-step design of the pipe network from top to bottom. The motion wave is used to calculate the pipe section confluence, the whole flow process is considered, the actual flow state of the rainwater pipe network is closer, and the design precision of the rainwater pipe network is improved.

The invention relates to the technical field of flood data processing, in particular to a multi-scene-driven basin flood dynamic simulation method and system. The watershed flood dynamic simulation method comprises the following steps: S1, fusing meteorological, geographic and hydrological data, constructing a surface grid based on the fused data, and dividing a watershed catchment surface by using the surface grid; s2, designing a rainstorm scene set according to a historical rainfall sequence, climate characteristics, a recurrence period and rainfall duration; constructing a response relationship of the runoff coefficient dynamically changing along with the rainfall time sequence; constructing a rainstorm-runoff scene by using the rainstorm scene set and the response relationship; and S3, constructing a flood simulation model, and carrying out flood dynamic simulation on a rainstorm-runoff scene. When a rainstorm-runoff scene is designed, a multi-dimensional rainstorm scene set is established according to a historical rainfall sequence, climate characteristics, a recurrence period and rainfall duration of a research area, different climate conditions and extreme meteorological events can be covered, and the degree of adaptation to hydrological events under different climate change backgrounds is improved.

The invention provides a basin rainfall-runoff response relation determination method based on multi-factor influence quantitative analysis, and belongs to the field of hydrological forecasting and water resource management. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, selecting representative factor indexes of three dimensions according to flood related characteristics of typical sessions of a watershed; then, in combination with a Spearman correlation coefficient analysis and stepwise regression analysis method, evaluating the statistical correlation strength of each factor and the runoff production coefficient, screening the factors with relatively strong correlation, constructing a multiple linear regression model, and determining the interaction among the factors; and finally, grading the significant indexes based on a decision tree binning algorithm, dividing flood event groups, and checking and evaluating a grouping effect through inter-group statistics. According to the invention, a multi-factor coupling action mechanism is disclosed, a runoff and convergence mechanism can be accurately reflected, the precision and reliability of a flood forecasting model are improved, and scientific grouping and differential forecasting of flood events are realized.

The invention belongs to the technical field of data processing, and particularly relates to a mountain torrent disaster early warning method and system based on meteorological and hydrological collaborative analysis, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining and processing a target early warning region to generate a topographic data set and a rainfall data sequence as model input; acquiring a plurality of topographic geometric parameters for calculating topographic potential energy; calculating the current terrain potential energy; accumulating to obtain the unit early-stage influence rainfall, the early-stage target rainfall mean value of all the grid units and the early-stage target rainfall standard deviation; calculating a current dynamic runoff coefficient; obtaining the current confluence intensity; according to the adjusting effect of the dynamic hydrological condition on the static basic flow velocity determined only by the landform, the current confluence speed is calculated; and inputting the current confluence speeds of all grid units in the target early warning area into the distributed hydrological model, and carrying out early warning. The problem that an existing distributed hydrological model cannot dynamically reflect runoff production differences and confluence changes is solved.

The application discloses a hydrological model differentiation calibration method based on runoff coefficient grading and coupling rainfall-melting-snow-runoff process, and comprises the following steps: collecting continuous hydrological data of a target basin and preprocessing; dividing out flood events of each flood according to the shape of the flow process line to form a flood sample set; calculating the runoff coefficient of each flood; determining a grading threshold according to the statistical distribution of all sample runoff coefficients, dividing the flood sample set into low and high runoff coefficient subsets; introducing a snow melting module into a traditional hydrological model; independently calibrating the model coupled with the snow melting module by using the two subsets respectively; obtaining the antecedent soil moisture of each flood, and determining the antecedent soil moisture threshold corresponding to the runoff coefficient grading threshold; in the flood forecasting stage, the antecedent soil moisture of the basin is obtained in real time, compared with the threshold, and the corresponding parameter set is dynamically selected and called for forecasting; the application improves the precision and stability of flood simulation and forecasting.

The invention relates to the technical field of urban planning and rainwater management, and discloses a land parcel scale low-impact development planning verification method, system and device and a medium, and the method comprises the steps: determining a comprehensive runoff coefficient threshold value which needs to be reached by a land parcel based on a given land parcel low-impact development management and control target; obtaining planning layout parameters of the land parcel and hydrological parameters corresponding to various underlying surfaces in the land parcel; according to the planning layout parameters and the hydrological parameters, calculating through a runoff coefficient synthesis model to obtain an expected comprehensive runoff coefficient of the land parcel; and comparing the expected comprehensive runoff coefficient with the comprehensive runoff coefficient threshold value, and judging whether the planning scheme of the land parcel meets the low-impact development management and control target or not according to a comparison result. According to the method, existing indexes (such as green land rate and building density) which must be declared in a planning scheme are directly used as input, extracorporeal circulation of examination is avoided, and the management efficiency is greatly improved.

The present application relates to the technical field of flood data processing, and particularly relates to a multi-scenario driven basin flood dynamic simulation method and system. The basin flood dynamic simulation method comprises the following steps: S1, fusing meteorological, geographical and hydrological data, constructing a surface grid based on the fused data, and dividing a basin catchment area by using the surface grid; S2, designing a rainstorm scenario set according to a historical rainfall sequence, climate characteristics, a return period and rainfall duration, constructing a response relationship of a runoff coefficient dynamically changing with rainfall time sequence, and constructing a rainstorm-runoff scenario by using the rainstorm scenario set and the response relationship; S3, constructing a flood simulation model and performing flood dynamic simulation on the rainstorm-runoff scenario. In the present application, a multi-dimensional rainstorm scenario set is built according to a historical rainfall sequence, climate characteristics, a return period and rainfall duration in a research area when designing a rainstorm-runoff scenario, which can cover different climate conditions and extreme weather events, and the adaptability to hydrological events under different climate change backgrounds is improved.

The invention discloses a rainfall-snow melting-runoff process coupled hydrological model differentiation calibration method based on runoff coefficient grading. The method comprises the following steps: collecting continuous hydrological data of a target drainage basin and preprocessing the continuous hydrological data; field flood events are segmented based on the flow hydrograph form, and a flood sample set is formed; calculating a runoff coefficient of each flood; determining a grading threshold according to statistical distribution of all sample runoff coefficients, and dividing the flood sample set into a low runoff coefficient subset and a high runoff coefficient subset; a snow melting module is introduced into the traditional hydrological model; performing independent parameter calibration on the model of the coupled snow melting module by using the two subsets; obtaining the early-stage soil water content of the flood of each session, and determining an early-stage soil water content threshold value corresponding to the runoff coefficient grading threshold value; in the flood forecasting stage, the early-stage soil water content of the drainage basin is obtained in real time and compared with a threshold value, and a corresponding parameter set is dynamically selected and called for forecasting; according to the invention, the flood simulation and forecasting precision and stability are improved.

The invention discloses a multi-runoff mechanism parallel refined flood forecasting method. The method comprises the following steps: collecting and arranging basic hydrometeorological data and remote sensing data of a research basin; constructing a Xinanjiang model, performing calibration simulation on runoff processes of all flood event sub-basins, and constructing a flood process sample library; carrying out runoff production mechanism marking on the sub-basin flood process in the sample library through the runoff curve number and the runoff coefficient; selecting characteristic factors influencing the runoff production mechanism from the collected data, and constructing a random forest runoff production mechanism classification prediction model; constructing a multi-runoff mechanism parallel space-time differentiation hybrid hydrological model, and performing runoff strategy combination according to sub-basin runoff mechanism results predicted by the classification prediction model; and performing parameter calibration on the model based on an improved SCE-UA optimization algorithm, and finally performing simulation calculation on a flood event. According to the method, the adaptability of the model to the event scale difference and the space underlying surface change is improved, and more stable and reliable flood forecasting performance is realized.