The invention belongs to the technical field of
system simulation analysis, and discloses a thermal hydraulic program
failure probability evaluation and self-adaptive variable order method, which comprises the following steps of: simulating N working conditions by using a split-
phase model, reading a program output result, adding a state
label for data after original
simulation data is acquired, and calculating the
failure probability of a thermal hydraulic program according to the state
label; the method comprises the following steps: randomly disrupting each characteristic value, evaluating the performance reduction degree of a model, calculating importance, sorting and screening characteristic parameters as input parameters of the model, identifying
minority class boundary samples, and interpolating between
minority class neighbors to generate a synthetic sample to expand data; training a
failure probability evaluation model by using a
data set subjected to
label addition and
feature screening, outputting an abnormal probability, converting a format of the trained model, packaging and integrating, inputting parameters through an interface, obtaining a failure probability through model reasoning, and judging automatic switching of a high-order model and a low-order model according to continuous multi-step results. According to the method, the failure probability evaluation of each order model and the
adaptive switching of the multi-order model can be realized.