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Prediction device and prediction method for state of emergency topic

The invention relates to a prediction device and a prediction method for the state of an emergency topic. The prediction device and the prediction method are provided based on the research of a microblog topic production mechanism and the influence of opinion leaders of emergency on the state of the emergency topic. The prediction device is provided with four components of a text acquisition unit, a topic clustering unit, a topic state recognition unit and a topic state prediction unit, and the topic state is predicted through the participation state of the opinion leaders, so that the prediction method of the topic state is simplified, the prediction accuracy is higher, and a basis can be provided for monitoring the tendency of the emergency topic. Through the calculation method of topic attention provided by the invention, the computation complexity of a traditional topic attention method is reduced. Moreover, the numerical value prediction of the topic attention is replaced by adopting the prediction of the state of the topic, so that the prediction content is more reasonable, and the prediction accuracy is higher. Furthermore, a prediction method of a hidden Markov model is provided, the set of the opinion leaders and the model of topic prediction are constructed through incremental iteration, so that the prediction operation can be obviously simplified, and the prediction efficiency is improved.
Owner:BEIJING UNIV OF POSTS & TELECOMM
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