The invention belongs to the field of
aviation safety technology and
flight data application, and discloses a precursor capture and effectiveness evaluation method and
system for monitoring
aviation unsafe incidents in real time, and the method comprises the steps: S0, carrying out the FOQA based on a flight
quality monitoring standard of a target aircraft type, a standard operation program manual file, an FOQA file, a FOQA file and an FOQA file; a set of flight state parameters and a set of
pilot manipulation parameters are determined. The method comprises the following steps: S1, constructing a precursor capture model fusing
wavelet transform
convolution and a modern
time domain convolution network, extracting a general mode of an
aviation unsafe event and
pilot manipulation characteristics, and converting a packet-level
label into a precursor probability of each moment through example
pooling; and S2, acquiring a specific unsafe event over-limit
label in combination with an FOQA monitoring standard, and comprehensively evaluating the effectiveness of the captured precursor through a disturbance curve method and a
reinforcement learning intelligent agent simulation method. According to the invention, through fusion of a plurality of technologies, comprehensive monitoring, early warning and evaluation means are provided for aviation unsafe events, and the
flight safety can be effectively improved.