The invention discloses a current disaster
risk assessment method and
system based on level connection quantitative early-stage disaster influence, belongs to the crossing field of disaster risk management and water conservancy projects, and is suitable for
risk assessment of drought, flood and other disasters in a
watershed scale. The method aims at solving the problems that early-stage disaster influences are difficult to quantify, the
memory effect lacks an attenuation mechanism and assessment scene coverage is limited in the prior art. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring early-stage disaster and current disaster data; memory parameters such as soil drought depth and
vegetation damage rate are calculated; constructing a level correlation number containing same-part (enhancement), different-part (uncertainty) and inverse-part (weakening) coefficients; correcting the level
connection number through an index / linear / power function attenuation model; and adjusting the current disaster reference risk value in combination with the level
connection number to obtain a final risk value. The
system comprises a
data acquisition module, a memory parameter calculation module, a level
contact number construction module, a time correction module, a risk calculation module and a result output module. According to the method, the quantification problem of early-stage disaster influence is effectively solved, the evaluation precision is remarkably improved, the error rate is reduced from 22%-31% to 7%-9%, four typical disaster combination scenes of drought-drought, drought-flood, flood-flood and flood-drought can be covered, the method has good
watershed adaptability and practicability, and the method is suitable for popularization and application. And a more scientific and operable basis is provided for a disaster prevention and reduction decision of a
drainage basin.