This invention discloses a method for predicting and planning operational risks of industrial robots based on probabilistic twins. The method includes: establishing an
industrial robot model, defining at least one intrinsic physical parameter affecting the dynamic behavior of the
industrial robot as a random variable with a
prior probability distribution, thus forming a probabilistic twin model of the
industrial robot; acquiring
sensor observation data from the physical world during the industrial
robot's task execution, and updating the probability distribution of the intrinsic physical parameter using a Bayesian calibration method based on the difference between the
observation data and the prediction results of the probabilistic twin model; probabilistically predicting the future risks of the industrial
robot executing candidate task paths based on the updated probabilistic twin model, and planning or adjusting the industrial
robot's task path based on the risk prediction results; this invention enables path planning to intelligently balance safety,
task completion, and active learning, significantly improving the robot's autonomous decision-making ability and operational efficiency.