The invention provides a reservoir
thermocline feature forecasting method considering climate and hydrological condition changes, belongs to the technical field of hydrological
simulation and
hydraulic engineering, and is suitable for a reservoir area without
main branch convergence. The method comprises the following steps: collecting and preprocessing a multi-
source data set; constructing a
drainage basin runoff yield model and a facade two-dimensional
water temperature model; main influence factors of the vertical
water temperature are screened, and a
data set is constructed; on the basis of a production and convergence model, a
reservoir water balance equation model and a Copula model, 27 working conditions are designed by considering climate and hydrological elements and a reservoir dispatching
coupling relation, and an expansion
data set is generated by utilizing a facade two-dimensional
water temperature model; an LSTM-BNN neural
network model is established to carry out vertical water temperature probability forecasting; the model performance is evaluated and the
occurrence time, location, thickness and strength of the quantified
thermocline are identified. According to the method, effective expansion of the
data set is realized through physical and reasonable working condition combination, meanwhile, redundancy of the
training set is avoided, and the problem that the generalization ability of the model is insufficient under a short-series
monitoring data scene is solved.