The invention provides an analysis method for reliability of numerical control equipment based on a hidden Markov chain. The method particularly comprises the following steps: 1, monitoring dynamic peThe invention provides an analysis method for reliability of numerical control equipment based on a hidden Markov chain. The method particularly comprises the following steps: 1, monitoring dynamic performance signals of the numerical control equipment, and abstracting the performance characteristic parameter values showing the change of the reliability of the numerical control equipment; 2, constrformance signals of the numerical control equipment, and abstracting the performance characteristic parameter values showing the change of the reliability of the numerical control equipment; 2, constructing a predictive model of the performance characteristic parameter values; 3, using the predictive model to predict the performance characteristic parameter values within the time needed for vectoructing a predictive model of the performance characteristic parameter values; 3, using the predictive model to predict the performance characteristic parameter values within the time needed for vectorization, and adopting the source coding method to vectorize the predictive values of the performance characteristic parameter values; 4, adopting the discrete hidden Markov chain model to identify thrization, and adopting the source coding method to vectorize the predictive values of the performance characteristic parameter values; 4, adopting the discrete hidden Markov chain model to identify the state transition probability of the numerical control equipment; and 5, utilizing the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation to establish a relational expression of the operational state and the se state transition probability of the numerical control equipment; and 5, utilizing the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation to establish a relational expression of the operational state and the state transition probability so as to deduce the probability of the numerical control equipment in different operating states, namely obtaining the reliability of the numerical control equipment. The mtate transition probability so as to deduce the probability of the numerical control equipment in different operating states, namely obtaining the reliability of the numerical control equipment. The method can accurately analyze, evaluate and predict the change of the reliability of the numerical control equipment before the numerical control equipment goes wrong, thereby avoiding the fault of theethod can accurately analyze, evaluate and predict the change of the reliability of the numerical control equipment before the numerical control equipment goes wrong, thereby avoiding the fault of the numerical control equipment and improving the operational reliability of the numerical control equipment.numerical control equipment and improving the operational reliability of the numerical control equipment.