The invention relates to a lightening damage early-warning method and system for an electric transmission line. The method includes the following steps that first, weather, satellite, radar and lightening positioning system data are collected, and lightening early-warning parameters at some period in the future are obtained through a comprehensive lightening prediction algorithm; second, according to different lightening overvoltage formation mechanisms, shielding failure and back striking calculation models are selected respectively, calculation is performed through the lightening early-warning parameters and line characteristic parameters, and the lightening trip probability of the electric transmission line is predicted; third, the lightening trip probability of the line is evaluated, the lightening trip probability of each base electric transmission line pole tower is compared with a determined line trip risk early-warning threshold value, and different levels of early-warning signals are obtained. Through the lightening damage early-warning method and system for the electric transmission line, lightening damage to the electric transmission line can be early warned effectively and timely, and technological support is provided for lightening protection and disaster relief of the electric transmission line.