The invention discloses a sudden
water pollution accident early warning method based on Monte Carlo and an
analytic hierarchy process. The method comprises the following steps: S1,
pollutant simulation based on a Monte Carlo method, i.e., based on an
uncertainty analysis, an uncertainty
water quality model is constructed, and according to
water quality,
hydrology and meteorological data, time and space change rules of
diffusion of pollutants are obtained through
simulation and calculation by use of the Monte Carlo method; S2, calculation of a
pollution accident
occurrence probability, i.e., through defining occurrence conditions of downstream
pollution accidents, through combination with a
pollutant diffusion result, a probability density function between a
pollutant peak concentration and a pollutant standard-exceeding duration is obtained, and the
occurrence probability of the downstream pollutant accidents is further obtained; S3, calculation of
pollution accident influences, i.e., by referring to the
diffusion state of the pollutants, through combination with the
analytic hierarchy process, sudden pollution accidents are evaluated, and health, economic, social and
water supply system influences possibly caused by the pollution accidents are obtained; and S4, based on risk degree determination of a
risk matrix, risks of early warning points are obtained comprehensively by use of a
risk matrix method.