The invention discloses a photovoltaic power prediction method for
Gaussian mixture error probability distribution compensation based on initial value optimization, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out the fitting of a
distribution rule of a photovoltaic power preliminary prediction error through employing a
Gaussian mixture model (GMM) based on initial value optimization according to a photovoltaic prediction error, and carrying out the calculation of the
distribution rule of the photovoltaic power preliminary prediction error; and compensating a predicted value of the error to a point prediction result to realize
interval prediction of photovoltaic output. As environmental factors such as illumination intensity, temperature,
visibility and the like have great influence on a prediction result of
photovoltaic power generation output, historical photovoltaic output data are divided into a plurality of different weather scenes by adopting a K-means clustering
algorithm (K-means) based on an
irradiance index, an optimal initial value
data set selected by inputting a
whale optimization
algorithm (WOA), and the prediction result of the
photovoltaic power generation output is predicted by using a prediction result of the
photovoltaic power generation output according to the optimal initial value
data set selected by the
whale optimization
algorithm (WOA). And then a
Gaussian mixture
distribution model is adopted and an expectation maximization (EM) method is combined to solve a model optimal parameter so as to carry out modeling analysis on probability distribution of photovoltaic prediction errors, and a
model fitting result is used to correct a photovoltaic power generation power point prediction value under a specified confidence level interval so as to obtain a final
prediction interval. According to the scheme provided by the invention,
simulation analysis is carried out by taking photovoltaic power data of a certain
photovoltaic power station in Jiangsu province as an example, and a result shows that the method provided by the invention has better fitness and reliability.