The application discloses a photovoltaic power prediction method based on initial value optimization and Gauss mixed error probability distribution compensation, and the method comprises the following steps: for the error of photovoltaic prediction, a Gauss mixed
distribution model (GMM) based on initial value optimization is used to fit the
distribution rule of the preliminary photovoltaic power prediction error, and then the prediction value of the error is compensated to the result of point prediction to realize
interval prediction of photovoltaic output. Since environmental factors such as illumination intensity, temperature and
visibility have a great influence on the prediction result of
photovoltaic power generation output, a K-means clustering
algorithm based on
irradiance index (K-means) is used to divide historical photovoltaic output data into multiple different weather scenes, the optimal initial value
data set selected by inputting a
Whale Optimization
Algorithm (WOA) is used, then a Gauss mixed
distribution model is used in combination with an expectation maximum
algorithm (EM) to obtain optimal parameters of the model, and the probability distribution of photovoltaic prediction error is modeled and analyzed, and under a specified confidence level interval, the
model fitting result is used to correct the photovoltaic power point prediction value, so that the final
prediction interval is obtained. The scheme provided by the application takes photovoltaic power data of a
photovoltaic power station in Jiangsu Province as an example for
simulation analysis, and the result shows that the method has better fitness and reliability.