The invention provides a regional
groundwater fluorine risk prediction method based on a
machine learning model, and relates to the technical field of
hydrogeology and environmental geoscience information. The method comprises the following steps: collecting and preprocessing predictive variable data, and constructing a sample
data set; defining a model task according to the predictive variable data and the
groundwater fluorine concentration exceeding condition; based on the sample
data set, three
machine learning algorithms are evaluated and screened through an
entropy weight method to serve as base learners; performing hyper-parameter optimization on the base learner, generating out-of-fold prediction features by using
cross validation, and constructing a meta learner input
feature matrix; taking
logistic regression as a meta-learner, constructing a stack integration model, predicting a global environment
data set of a research area, and outputting an underground water
fluorine exceeding probability distribution map and an underground water fluorine risk grading map; the SHAP method is adopted to analyze the feature contributions of the base learner and the meta learner, identify key driving factors and reveal the action mechanism. According to the invention, the
groundwater fluorine risk prediction precision and robustness are improved.