The invention relates to the technical field of
power equipment monitoring and fault diagnosis, and discloses a power
transformer fault early warning method and
system. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a load current sequence, an environment temperature sequence and a top
oil temperature sequence of a
transformer; calculating an initial actually measured temperature rise based on the top
oil temperature and the environment temperature, and determining thermal response
lag time through cross-
correlation analysis; carrying out translation correction on the load current according to the
lag time, and constructing a time-aligned excitation input set and an actually measured temperature rise sequence based on a common
effective time window; substituting the excitation input set into a
thermal circuit model based on a
thermal balance differential equation to calculate a theoretical reference temperature rise, calculating a residual error in combination with an actually measured temperature rise sequence, performing
moving average filtering, and constructing a fault
feature vector; and inputting the fault
feature vector into a fault
diagnosis classification model to determine a fault type and severity, and generating a grading early warning instruction according to the fault type and severity. According to the method,
thermal hysteresis interference can be eliminated, and accurate quantitative early warning of the latent thermal fault of the
transformer under the dynamic working condition is realized.