The invention relates to the field of estimation of toxic substances in environments, and specifically discloses a model-estimation-based biological toxicity estimation method, which comprises the following steps of 1, selecting a surrogate species; 2, performing toxicity estimation to obtain toxicity data of an unknown species by virtue of the surrogate species; 3, screening estimation data. The biological toxicity estimation method is applied to toxicity researches on species, and a water quality criterion deduction case research on zinc laterally proves feasibility in toxicity estimation of a species with an ICE (Interspecies Correction Estimation) model, so that the problem of incapability of accurately deducing a water quality criterion due to insufficient toxicity data of a part of pollutants is solved; damage to an experimental organism is avoided, and environmental pollution is reduced, so that a rapid, simple and environment-friendly biological toxicity research method is provided; under the condition of water quality criterion and risk assessment and the like with a requirement on a large amount of biological toxicity data for analysis, if data of a part of pollutants is insufficient, the toxicity estimation method is more economical and convenient.