The present application belongs to the technical field of boiler four-
pipe leakage, and discloses a boiler four-
pipe leakage risk early warning method and
system based on
oxide skin evolution, which comprises the following steps: constructing an
oxide skin generation model and an
oxide skin peeling determination model, encapsulating them into the same model group in a correlated combination manner to obtain an oxide skin evolution
model set; obtaining a state
feature vector, mapping the state
feature vector to a spatial position, obtaining an oxide
skin growth thickness prediction value and an oxide skin peeling
risk index based on the oxide skin generation model and the oxide skin peeling determination model; weighting and fusing the temperature change rate and the pressure change rate in the state
feature vector to obtain an oxide skin evolution comprehensive
risk index; comparing the oxide skin evolution comprehensive
risk index with a preset
risk threshold to obtain the risk grade of each spatial position unit, and obtaining the boiler four-
pipe leakage risk early warning according to the risk grade and the oxide skin evolution comprehensive risk index, thereby avoiding four-pipe leakage, pipe explosion and other faults caused by oxide
skin growth and peeling in advance, and reducing the probability of unplanned shutdown.