The invention belongs to the technical field of
oil and gas production and development, and discloses a sand production
pressure difference and sand production quantity quantitative prediction method suitable for a high-temperature and high-pressure sandstone reservoir, which comprises the following steps: calculating static rock mechanical parameters of a target well; predicting initial
crustal stress; establishing a
porosity and permeability dynamic evolution model; establishing a three-dimensional finite
element model; establishing a seepage stress
coupling transient nonlinear
finite element equation; applying well
bottom pressure drop to simulate production, and determining sand production
pressure difference; and establishing a sand
production rate prediction model, and quantitatively predicting the sand
production rate. According to the method, factors such as pore permeability stress, temperature change and
water content influencing rock strength are comprehensively considered, a three-dimensional finite
element model is established, a seepage stress
coupling finite element equation and solving steps are established based on a reservoir elastic-plastic consolidation theory, critical plastic strain is introduced to quantitatively characterize the sand
production risk, a sand production prediction model is established, and the rock strength is predicted. And finally, quantitative and accurate calculation and scientific
pressure control of the critical sand production
pressure difference and the sand production amount are realized.