The invention relates to a
satellite operation risk quantitative evaluation method. The method comprises the following steps: S1, dividing
satellite operation consequence states, and formulating
satellite operation
risk evaluation criteria; s2, constructing a satellite operation risk quantitative evaluation model by using a
Bayesian network modeling tool; the satellite operation risk quantitative evaluation model is decomposed according to construction logic of a satellite layer, a function layer, a subsystem layer and a single
machine layer, and the state of a top layer node is defined as a satellite operation consequence state; s3, collecting satellite operation data, and calculating a
fault probability of a single
machine corresponding to a bottom layer node in the satellite operation risk quantitative evaluation model according to the satellite operation data; s4, calculating to obtain a probability value of a satellite operation consequence state by adopting a satellite operation risk quantitative evaluation model; s5, according to a satellite operation
risk assessment criterion, calculating a satellite operation risk comprehensive
score through the probability value of the satellite operation consequence state; and S6, traversing all satellites of the
satellite system, and repeating the steps S1 to S5 to obtain operation risk comprehensive scores of all satellites and performing sorting.