The invention relates to the technical field of solar
radiation prediction, in particular to a
satellite-ground combined ultra-short-term solar
radiation prediction method and
system. Comprising the following steps: S1, collecting current state data and historical
big data based on solar
radiation; s2, preprocessing the ground-based cloud picture and the air-based cloud picture; and S3, identifying cloud layer state data based on the constructed cloud layer identification model. And S4, the solar
radiation attenuation prediction model is adopted to identify the total solar
radiation attenuation rate, and a
radiation attenuation table is constructed. And S5, predicting cloud layer state change data and
satellite observation total radiation change data by adopting an extrapolation method, and further calculating to obtain future short-term ground observation total radiation prediction data. According to the method, by combining observation of a stationary
satellite and an all-
sky imager, satellite-ground combined observation of cloud conditions of different height
layers is realized, the influence of cloud in a whole
atmospheric column on solar short-wave radiation is fully considered, the prediction precision is maintained, the operation process is optimized, and the precision and efficiency of solar radiation attenuation prediction are improved.