The invention discloses a photovoltaic fault diagnosis system and method based on theoretical calculation and data analysis. The diagnosis system comprises a data acquisition sub system, a data storage sub system, a data mining sub system, a system modeling prediction sub system, a fault decision-making sub system and a fault display feedback sub system. According to the photovoltaic fault diagnosis system and method based on theoretical calculation and data analysis, starting from the perspective of a whole electric field, the operation conditions of all unit equipment in the electric field are analyzed, and the operation conductions of all the unit equipment are judged in real time in combination with the predicted value of a system model; meanwhile, the fault decision-making system makes the fault diagnosis system have the autonomous leaning function through an intelligent algorithm, and the fault judgment accuracy of the system can be increased continuously; meanwhile, the photovoltaic fault diagnosis system can store the electric field real-time data, electric field external environment data, unit model prediction data, fault source and other data in real time, and the system is made to have the fault retrospection function; the electric field operation safety level is increased, and the electric field power quality is improved.