The invention provides a rock-fill dam concrete panel
cracking reliability calculation method and
system, and the method comprises the steps: determining test parameters based on obtained physical parameters of a rock-fill material used by a rock-fill dam; duncan E-B
model parameters are determined based on the test parameters, factor
sensitivity analysis is conducted on the Duncan E-B
model parameters based on an orthogonal test method, and sensitivity parameters are determined; carrying out random field characterization on the sensitivity parameters by using a normal random field, and discretizing random
field data by using a
Cholesky decomposition method to obtain a sample set and a
test set of a training agent model; based on a
Kriging model constructed by the sample set, performing optimization iteration through MPSO and a learning function to obtain an optimal agent model, and evaluating the optimal agent model; inputting the
test set into the optimal agent model to calculate to obtain a predicted value and an evaluation index, establishing a structural
performance function, and calculating to obtain the panel
cracking reliability by adopting an important sampling subset
simulation method; according to the method, the accuracy of the
cracking reliability is improved.