A method for generating typical
watershed hydro-wind-solar
hybrid scenarios based on an improved C-
vine Copula model is proposed. First, based on long-term multi-energy complementarity requirements, multi-year runoff data from a
power station and
power output data from wind and
solar power stations within the
watershed are selected, outliers are removed, and missing values are filled, completing data preprocessing. Next, runoff and wind / solar output are set as random variables, and nonparametric
kernel density estimation is used to obtain the marginal distribution functions of each variable. Then, the improved C-
vine Copula model is used to accurately characterize the
spatiotemporal correlation between water, wind, and solar resources, deriving the joint probability distribution. Then, Latin
hypercube sampling is used to collect uniformly random samples stratified, and K-means clustering is used to generate typical scenarios. Finally, the effectiveness of the scenarios is evaluated from the perspectives of temporal and
spatial correlation and randomness. This technology can effectively address the randomness and complexity of water, wind, and solar resources, generating realistic typical scenarios, providing valuable reference for the planning and scheduling of
watershed hydro-wind-solar
hybrid systems.