The invention provides a water burst and mud burst prediction method based on a comprehensive advanced geological forecast fault
fracture zone, and relates to the technical field of
geological disaster prediction, through a fault
fracture zone existence possibility grade, an approaching precursor grade, a rock
mass integrity degree grade, a drilling condition grade, a
seismic wave reflection method grade and a geological
radar method grade, the fault
fracture zone existence possibility grade, the approaching precursor grade, the rock
mass integrity degree grade, the drilling condition grade and the geological
radar method grade are calculated; and predicting the scale grade of the fault fracture zone by using a polynomial naive Bayes-based fault fracture zone comprehensive prediction model so as to obtain the scale of the fault fracture zone, if the fault fracture zone does not exist, determining that water
bursting and mud
bursting do not exist, and if the fault fracture zone exists, determining that water
bursting and mud bursting do not exist. And combining the
water conductivity grade of the fault fracture zone, the rock
mass integrity degree grade, the underground
water development degree grade and the
surface water supply condition grade, and utilizing a fault fracture zone water gushing and mud bursting grade prediction model based on a
genetic algorithm and a
support vector machine to predict the fault fracture zone water gushing and mud bursting grade. The problem that the water burst and mud burst grade of the fault fracture zone cannot be predicted in the prior art is solved.