The invention discloses a distributed
photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and
system based on online modeling. The method comprises the steps of 1, collecting distributed photovoltaic historical data to construct a historical
data set; 2, establishing a rolling sampling model, starting from the previous day, carrying out
rollback calculation by day, carrying out quality judgment on a
data set of each day, and if an effective sample is lower than a threshold value, skipping the day to continue
rollback until the number of days of the effective sample is greater than a set number of days N1; step 3, calculating a daily curve characteristic index based on the circularly sampled data, and determining a weather trajectory type of the to-be-predicted day; 4, judging whether the weather track type is matched with the weather type of the to-be-predicted day or not, and if yes, storing the data of the current day to an effective
data set; and 5, judging whether the number of valid days of the data set meets a set condition N2 or not, and if so, carrying out
photoelectric conversion modeling on the data set. According to the method, online updating of the
photoelectric conversion model can be realized, and the distributed photovoltaic power prediction precision is improved.