The invention relates to the technical field of
public health safety, and discloses a quantitative evaluation method and
system for
pathogen transmission risk, and the evaluation method comprises the following steps: step 1, obtaining
virulence genes, reference
virulence genes, environmental parameters, transmission factors and host
risk factor parameters of
pathogen samples; 2, performing variation detection on the
virulence gene by adopting various variation detection algorithms to obtain all variation sites, and
processing all variation sites to obtain effective variation sites; 3, constructing a virulence index model, inputting the variation distance into the virulence index model, and calculating the virulence index of the
pathogenic bacteria sample; and 4, constructing a propagation
risk assessment model, inputting the virulence index, the
environmental factor, the propagation coefficient and the host susceptibility
risk index into the propagation
risk assessment model, and outputting a risk value by the propagation
risk assessment model. According to the method, accurate prediction of the
pathogen transmission risk can be realized.