The application discloses a kind of
thermal power station regulating capacity online prediction method and
system, to solve the problems such as the deviation caused by the simple splicing of AGC and unit parameters in existing
system, insufficient explainability etc.The application includes: collecting
thermal power station operating parameters and external dispatching signals to form multi-
source data input vector;Abnormal value and missing value are processed and normalized;
Encoder is constructed, and through cross attention, the
time step dynamic alignment of multi-source features and load sequence is realized, and a fusion
feature vector is generated;Decoder is constructed, and probabilistic prediction is realized through forward sampling, and the unit regulating capacity prediction result and
confidence interval of uncertainty quantization are output;
Online evaluation and adaptive update.The application can make the model learn the contribution weight of different
time lag multi-
source data features to load, realize the explainable "instruction-response" alignment, reduce the prediction deviation and improve the
engineering explainability, and provide reliable decision basis for
power grid dispatching and unit control.